There are plenty of Black Swans in Korea right now! JS / CF
A few days ago I wrote in this blog about Kim Jong Un to be possibly a good leader for North Korea. http://solarwindpronet.blogspot.fi/2013/04/kim-jong-un-could-be-good-leader-for.html
JS /CF
But all this only IF he is really willing to negotiate with US and South Korea of peace and stability in the area. And if he is using threatening as a means of driving through his reforms to modernize his country and make it more democratic. If all this harsch rhetoric is needed for getting enough power to reduce the influence of old-fashioned party and military men who are now controlling the country. And if he is capable of preventing war with South Korea and the U.S.A. And if he is capable of avoiding civil war in North Korea.
And IF US and South Korean officials and political and military leaders understand what is really going on there.
There are many IFs.
BUT
I have to admit that after reading more recent news and watching some more North Korean propaganda videos I had to write this article.
It is possible that Kim Jong Un has a dream of a united Korea ruled by him. It may be that the U.S.A. and other leading countries have underestimated North Korean Army's ability to conduct a military surprize that could lead the whole peninsula under their command. Or then both Koreas would be totally destroyed by US nuclear IC missile attack.
Let me once more explain a little bit.
I just read some articles about North Korean nuclear strategy being concentrated in creating a EMP (electromagnetic pulse) weapon that is capable of destroying modern communication and military devices of US and South Korean troops located in Korean Peninsula. If North Korea would use its mid-range missiles and small nuclear warheads (which it declares to have) for generating a EMP-pulse over Korean Peninsula by detonating those little nuclear warheads 40-50 km above South Korea, it could begin a 3-days war, have 100 000 US hostages and hundreds of thousands of South Koreans as POW. All the modern arms systems would be ruined by the EMP but old North Korean tanks and weapons would function just fine. South Korea would be under North Korean command in a few days.
LINK - ISRAELNATIONALNEWS:
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/Articles/Article.aspx/13044#.UV9SLL7yWUk
The only way to win that war for the US army would be sacrificing hundreds of thousands of their own citizens and soldiers and even more South korean Citizens and North Korean civilians by striking with their intercontinental strategic missiles with nuclear warheads to North Korean targets. But this could be a zero-possibility just because of the hostages that North Korea could have been captured during the short war. No developed country would kill this much of own people for a single victory.
After reading that American high officier had warned about this kind of possibility a few years ago I had to admit that this could really happen. And when I watched a North Korean propaganda-video which was made in the beginning of this year http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=mzpMhNXKt4E this kind of strategy could be seen in this 'United Korea in three days' -film. They mentioned that electricity in Seoul and everywhere in South Korea would be off after North Korean attack. Despite of being propaganda, the film was quite clearly describing a situation where EMP strike could have been the first military act and immediately after that a full scale war with conventional weapons would give north victory very quickly.
* * *
So here is one example what happens when little countries get help to start their own nuclear reactors. It is needed only international tensions and lack of democracy and you get the leaders of the country making their own bombs. And a little more tensions and missunderstandings, then you'll get a nuclear war.
Stop building new nuclear reactors! Without nuclear reactors we would not have nuclear arms. The more reactors, the more nuclear bombs. They are always connected.
For Korean Peninsula; I'm sorry I have no answers, only quesses. No good ones.
Let's hope the first of my scenarios of Kim Jong Un http://solarwindpronet.blogspot.fi/2013/04/kim-jong-un-could-be-good-leader-for.html would be more true than this war-hero possibility. Next weeks will tell us.
We'd better to pray!
JS / CF
JPS
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