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Teacher, activist, interested in energy technology, climate change, environmental issues and global security.

Saturday, April 13, 2013

Nuclear Accident in France Would Cost 1 to 5.8 Trillion Euros - Study Kept Secret for Years

Nuclear power plants can be more dangerous than a snake bite -  for millions of people    Arts-photo: Jukka Seppälä / Creator's Fingerprints

According to a IRSN-study made by French government in 2007, a severe nuclear accident in one of the nuclear power plants in France, at Dampierre, would cost 1 Trillion - 5.8 Trillion Euros - that is - 1,000 - 5,800 Billion Euros.

LINK - BUSINESSINSIDER: (Update - 30.12.2014: This link has been taken down. The same story you can find from this link: )

 The results of the study were so frightening that the french government decided to keep the study secret. France produced then 85% of its electrical power by nuclear power plants and the reality was too rough to be published. The study says 5 million people would be forced to be evacuated from their homes and the contaminated area would cover London, Munich and Genova and be affecting the lives of 90 million people.


Study's estimate of cancer deaths was over 28,000 and almost 27,000 additional cancers and other diseases would be caused by this kind of accident.

The study was not published until now and the estimates of economical effects were downgraded to 430 Billion Euro in the new version of the study. But after downscaling the estimate, the author of the study still said that real accidents cause extremely high costs: for example the now ongoing Fukushima nuclear disaster will ultimately end up at least 1 Trillion Euro bill.

The author of the study pointed out that no country - not France, nor Japan - can pay the costs of a bad nuclear accident. The people suffering of it are simply not paid by anyone.

It's about a time to begin to face the truth - nuclear power can cost much, much more than we can afford.

Photo-Arts: Jukka Seppälä / Creator's Fingerprints

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A very good video, really worth watching, can be found here:

On this (26 min.) video a senior US official tells why now it's time to leave nuclear era behind. If you still believe in nuclear power, please watch and listen to this 86-year old wise man!


The Largest Wind Park in the World Is Being Planned in Sweden - 2500 MW, 700 Mills

A Finnish wind park at the north-west coast    Photo: Jukka Seppälä / Creator's Fingerprints

While Fennovoima and TVO are still dreaming of new nuclear reactors, several thousands of Megawatts wind parks are being planned in Finland and Sweden in addition to Danish windparks. The latest news tell about a plan to build 700 wind generators with combined capacity of 2500 MW on the Swedish cost. The offshore park would be the biggest in the world and the building should start in 2014 or 2015. The company behind the plan was shown green light by the Swedish environmental court in the beginning of this year. Finnish wind power companies are seeing realistic to have about 1000 MW new wind power capacity during 2020ies in Finland.

According to wind power industry new offshore power is already cheaper than new nuclear power, so we'll see what kind of effect these kind of large wind parks will have to profitability of planned new nuclear power plants on nordic power market. Signs of overcapacity and sinking power prices has been recently seen in Germany and Central Europe while new wind power and solar PV-plants have been writing new rules for the energy game.

There seems to be interesting times ahead!


Friday, April 5, 2013

Kim Jong Un Could Be a Bad Leader for North Korea - If He Thinks He Can Win a Nuclear War

There are plenty of Black Swans in Korea right now!     JS / CF

A few days ago I wrote in this blog about Kim Jong Un to be possibly a good leader for North Korea.

But all this only IF he is really willing to negotiate with US and South Korea of peace and stability in the area. And if he is using threatening as a means of driving through his reforms to modernize his country and make it more democratic. If all this harsch rhetoric is needed for getting enough power to reduce the influence of old-fashioned party and military men who are now controlling the country. And if he is capable of preventing war with South Korea and the U.S.A. And if he is capable of avoiding civil war in North Korea.

And IF US and South Korean officials and political and military leaders understand what is really going on there.

There are many IFs.


I have to admit that after reading more recent news and watching some more North Korean propaganda videos I had to write this article.

It is possible that Kim Jong Un has a dream of a united Korea ruled by him. It may be that the U.S.A. and other leading countries have underestimated North Korean Army's ability to conduct a military surprize that could lead the whole peninsula under their command. Or then both Koreas would be totally destroyed by US nuclear IC missile attack.

Let me once more explain a little bit.

I just read some articles about North Korean nuclear strategy being concentrated in creating a EMP (electromagnetic pulse) weapon that is capable of destroying modern communication and military devices of US and South Korean troops located in Korean Peninsula. If North Korea would use its mid-range missiles and small nuclear warheads (which it declares to have) for generating a EMP-pulse over Korean Peninsula by detonating those little nuclear warheads 40-50 km above South Korea, it could begin a 3-days war, have 100 000 US hostages and hundreds of thousands of South Koreans as POW. All the modern arms systems would be ruined by the EMP but old North Korean tanks and weapons would function just fine. South Korea would be under North Korean command in a few days.

The only way to win that war for the US army would be sacrificing hundreds of thousands of their own citizens and soldiers and even more South korean Citizens and North Korean civilians by striking with their intercontinental strategic missiles with nuclear warheads to North Korean targets. But this could be a zero-possibility just because of the hostages that North Korea could have been captured during the short war. No developed country would kill this much of own people for a single victory.

After reading that American high officier had warned about this kind of possibility a few years ago I had to admit that this could really happen. And when I watched a North Korean propaganda-video which was made in the beginning of this year  this kind of strategy could be seen in this 'United Korea in three days' -film. They mentioned that electricity in Seoul and everywhere in South Korea would be off after North Korean attack. Despite of being propaganda, the film was quite clearly describing a situation where EMP strike could have been the first military act and immediately after that a full scale war with conventional weapons would give north victory very quickly.

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So here is one example what happens when little countries get help to start their own nuclear reactors. It is needed only international tensions and lack of democracy and you get the leaders of the country making their own bombs. And a little more tensions and missunderstandings, then you'll get a nuclear war.

Stop building new nuclear reactors! Without nuclear reactors we would not have nuclear arms. The more reactors, the more nuclear bombs. They are always connected.

For Korean Peninsula; I'm sorry I have no answers, only quesses. No good ones.

Let's hope the first of my scenarios of Kim Jong Un  would be more true than this war-hero possibility. Next weeks will tell us.

We'd better to pray!


Wednesday, April 3, 2013

Kim Jong Un Could Be a Good Leader for North Korea - If the U.S.A. only Allowed Him to Be

I know that most people think this must be a joke. But it isn't. I'm serious. Kim Jong Un could be,  and I think he is willing to be, a good leader for his country.

Could Kim Jong Un be creating a new peaceful North Korea by adapting renewable energy policy?     Photos: Jukka Seppälä / Creator's Fingerprints

Well, after having said this I 've got plenty of enemies. Many people may think me being crazy.

But let me explain a little bit what I mean.

Last year, after the death of his father Kim Jong Il, Kim Jong Un was having a TV show where Disney-like characters were having a performance on the stage. At the same time as Mickey and Winnie were dancing on North Korean TV broadcast, long banned american style of food like hamburgers were officially shown to be eaten in North Korea.

I think this was kind of asking for cooperation with the western world and a sign of good will. But what was the response? I think people were laughing at this and Disney was sewing  North Korea for a stolen Copyright.

And now - Kim Jong Un is threatening the US army and South Koreans with a nuclear strike having declared war and cut hot lines of early warning in case of misunderstanding.


There is one very strong sign and message hidden in North Korean policy. They named Pak Pong Ju for Prime minister. And he seems to be a man of reforms in economy, supporting Chinese style of market driven socialism.


I think this is a clear indicator that the country will go on talks with US and South Korea in the future. But China must not be left out of the scene.

Let me put it in this way:

Let's imagine Mexico was having a civil war in 1950ies where Northern Mexico capitalist revolutionists were receiveing support and arms from US government. The southern part of Mexico was fighting to remain the communist society they had on the whole Mexico area before the capitalist gerillas started US aided revolution. The southern Mexico communists were fighting with Chinese weapons and having Chinese army soldiers and fighter jets to help them. The parties could not achieve peace so they made a ceasefire and divided the country to North Mexico and South Mexico.

Decades passed but the country remained divided: China helped and supported the communist South Mexico and US aid was received in capitalist North Mexico. But Southern part was having more natural resources and with a massive support of China it evolved to a wealthy communist market economy. The northern part was poorer and couldn't get as much support from US government which was having budget cuts and other economical issues. But they did get some nuclear reactors and military support. And they bagan to develop their own nuclear weapons with the US government silently agreeing, though they were officially warning about the nuke program.

Every year the Chinese army participated the joint military exercise with South Mexico and sometimes North Mexico opened fire and showed their military power by sinking some South Mexican military ships with US silently agreeing in the background.

The economical situation in North Mexico being desperate and millions of people having not enough food to eat they still were obliged to keep their dignity by investing all their resources to arms development. And the yearly military exercise of China and South Mexico is to be held once more near the US coast. This time the young leader of North Mexico is warning South Mexicans and China more eagerly than before to gain the support of his own army leaders and leading companies and capitalists and gathering enough power to make the inavoidable reforms the country is facing in the near future, to take some communist elements to their economy to get it work better.

But when he is threatening China with a nuclear strike, China sends some new stealth bombers, capable of carrying nuclear bombs, to Southern Mexico to drop dummy bombs. And after that China brings a powerful navy fleet to US-Mexican coast loaded with nuke-bombers and missiles and threaten strike back with full force if North Mexico or its allies attack South Mexican battle forces or targets.

Well, what do you think, how would the US government act in a situatuation where Chinese nuclear battle force would be carried to the very shore of the U.S.A. ?

Can we afford ignoring China in Korean crisis?

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I hope that North Korea, the U.S..A., South Korea and China will stay calm and avoid any additional provocative acts. This may be a historical moment to restart negotiations and solve the Korean Peninsula problems. It may take decades but it is still possible. But every party in this game need now to respect each others - I mean really respect. If they fail in doing that, the game that follows will be called the World War III. We can't afford it!

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When I wrote that Kim Jong Un could be a good leader I really meant it. And here are some things that could make him a best man for Norh Korea:

He could:

1. Start negotiating of a full scale energy shift to renewables to make North Korea to be among the first countries in the world with 100 percent renewable energy economy. I think that Germany, Denmark and  Finland could be participating this process with a great pleasure cooperating with North Korea and training their experts in developing their own industry of PV solar cells production and wind and wave energy research. We could jointly make this country a winning economy to boost also the nearby countries to make their own energy shift to safe and sustainable renewable energy. Also China and Japan could share their technology know how in such a friendly win-win project.

2. Negotiate with the U.S.A and South Korea together with China and Japan to quarantee the safety and independance of North Korea and  give both the Korean peninsula countries a good possibility of ecologically sustainable economical growth and wealthy.

3. Negotiate about turning the huge military machines of both of the countries into more police-force-like safety and security institutions that could have very important role in helping their own people and government and if asked also the neighbour countries in case of nature forces cause large scale catastrophes like earthquakes,storms,  tsunamis and volcanic events. And of course helping to minimize the impact of industrial accidents often combined with natural disasters.

4. Make an initiative of agricultural revolution using means of modern biological farming. No GM food but understanding the ecological processes of sustainable acriculture in Korean Peninsula area. Japan could be one of the best friends in achieving good results in agriculture.

5. Renew the law and punishment system so that no valuable human resources would be wasted in jails or camps but the people who have new ideas and different thinking could be having an important role in developing North Korea to one of the most leading countries in the world.

6. Take good things of every leading country in the world and combine them to Korean way of thinking and Korean culture. There are plenty of things to be adapted from China, Germany, Cuba, Italy, Finland, Sweden, Israel, Japan, Russia, South Korea e.t.c.  and even from the U.S.A. And I'm sure that North Koreans have also lots of good things to give the world.

7. Announce the people of North Korea, the leading communist party and whole the world that North Korea is now beginning a new era - a revolution for peaceful development and cooperation of the countries in the area on win-win basis.

If he would take these kind of steps, he could be remembered as a revolutionist and a great politician and leader. If not ... ? ? ?

There are plenty of  Black Swans swimming around Korean Peninsula now - let's hope we can catch all of them!        Photo: Jukka Seppälä / Creator's Fingerprints

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I hope the tension will give up and a peaceful progress will follow in Asia. China must be welcomed to developing work too. We must create a chain of winners instead of confrontation. And renewables could be fueling that process.

Maybe just hopes and dreams....