Kim Jong Un Could Be a Bad Leader for North Korea - If He Thinks He Can Win a Nuclear War

There are plenty of Black Swans in Korea right now!     JS / CF

A few days ago I wrote in this blog about Kim Jong Un to be possibly a good leader for North Korea. http://solarwindpronet.blogspot.fi/2013/04/kim-jong-un-could-be-good-leader-for.html

JS /CF

But all this only IF he is really willing to negotiate with US and South Korea of peace and stability in the area. And if he is using threatening as a means of driving through his reforms to modernize his country and make it more democratic. If all this harsch rhetoric is needed for getting enough power to reduce the influence of old-fashioned party and military men who are now controlling the country. And if he is capable of preventing war with South Korea and the U.S.A. And if he is capable of avoiding civil war in North Korea.

And IF US and South Korean officials and political and military leaders understand what is really going on there.

There are many IFs.

BUT

I have to admit that after reading more recent news and watching some more North Korean propaganda videos I had to write this article.

It is possible that Kim Jong Un has a dream of a united Korea ruled by him. It may be that the U.S.A. and other leading countries have underestimated North Korean Army's ability to conduct a military surprize that could lead the whole peninsula under their command. Or then both Koreas would be totally destroyed by US nuclear IC missile attack.

Let me once more explain a little bit.

I just read some articles about North Korean nuclear strategy being concentrated in creating a EMP (electromagnetic pulse) weapon that is capable of destroying modern communication and military devices of US and South Korean troops located in Korean Peninsula. If North Korea would use its mid-range missiles and small nuclear warheads (which it declares to have) for generating a EMP-pulse over Korean Peninsula by detonating those little nuclear warheads 40-50 km above South Korea, it could begin a 3-days war, have 100 000 US hostages and hundreds of thousands of South Koreans as POW. All the modern arms systems would be ruined by the EMP but old North Korean tanks and weapons would function just fine. South Korea would be under North Korean command in a few days.

LINK - ISRAELNATIONALNEWS:
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/Articles/Article.aspx/13044#.UV9SLL7yWUk
The only way to win that war for the US army would be sacrificing hundreds of thousands of their own citizens and soldiers and even more South korean Citizens and North Korean civilians by striking with their intercontinental strategic missiles with nuclear warheads to North Korean targets. But this could be a zero-possibility just because of the hostages that North Korea could have been captured during the short war. No developed country would kill this much of own people for a single victory.

After reading that American high officier had warned about this kind of possibility a few years ago I had to admit that this could really happen. And when I watched a North Korean propaganda-video which was made in the beginning of this year    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=mzpMhNXKt4E  this kind of strategy could be seen in this 'United Korea in three days' -film. They mentioned that electricity in Seoul and everywhere in South Korea would be off after North Korean attack. Despite of being propaganda, the film was quite clearly describing a situation where EMP strike could have been the first military act and immediately after that a full scale war with conventional weapons would give north victory very quickly.

*      *      *

So here is one example what happens when little countries get help to start their own nuclear reactors. It is needed only international tensions and lack of democracy and you get the leaders of the country making their own bombs. And a little more tensions and missunderstandings, then you'll get a nuclear war.

Stop building new nuclear reactors! Without nuclear reactors we would not have nuclear arms. The more reactors, the more nuclear bombs. They are always connected.

For Korean Peninsula; I'm sorry I have no answers, only quesses. No good ones.

Let's hope the first of my scenarios of Kim Jong Un  http://solarwindpronet.blogspot.fi/2013/04/kim-jong-un-could-be-good-leader-for.html  would be more true than this war-hero possibility. Next weeks will tell us.

We'd better to pray!

JS / CF

JPS

Kim Jong Un Could Be a Good Leader for North Korea - If the U.S.A. only Allowed Him to Be

I know that most people think this must be a joke. But it isn't. I'm serious. Kim Jong Un could be,  and I think he is willing to be, a good leader for his country.

Could Kim Jong Un be creating a new peaceful North Korea by adapting renewable energy policy?     Photos: Jukka Seppälä / Creator's Fingerprints

Well, after having said this I 've got plenty of enemies. Many people may think me being crazy.

But let me explain a little bit what I mean.

Last year, after the death of his father Kim Jong Il, Kim Jong Un was having a TV show where Disney-like characters were having a performance on the stage. At the same time as Mickey and Winnie were dancing on North Korean TV broadcast, long banned american style of food like hamburgers were officially shown to be eaten in North Korea.

LINK - HUFFINGTONPOST :
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/08/north-korea-disney-tv-mickey-mouse-winnie-pooh_n_1657168.html
I think this was kind of asking for cooperation with the western world and a sign of good will. But what was the response? I think people were laughing at this and Disney was sewing  North Korea for a stolen Copyright.

And now - Kim Jong Un is threatening the US army and South Koreans with a nuclear strike having declared war and cut hot lines of early warning in case of misunderstanding.

But!

There is one very strong sign and message hidden in North Korean policy. They named Pak Pong Ju for Prime minister. And he seems to be a man of reforms in economy, supporting Chinese style of market driven socialism.

LINK - NKNEWS :

http://www.nknews.org/2013/04/north-korea-names-new-prime-minister/

LINK - NKNEWS:

http://www.nknews.org/2013/03/why-north-korea-keeps-raising-peninsula-tensions/

I think this is a clear indicator that the country will go on talks with US and South Korea in the future. But China must not be left out of the scene.

Let me put it in this way:

Let's imagine Mexico was having a civil war in 1950ies where Northern Mexico capitalist revolutionists were receiveing support and arms from US government. The southern part of Mexico was fighting to remain the communist society they had on the whole Mexico area before the capitalist gerillas started US aided revolution. The southern Mexico communists were fighting with Chinese weapons and having Chinese army soldiers and fighter jets to help them. The parties could not achieve peace so they made a ceasefire and divided the country to North Mexico and South Mexico.

Decades passed but the country remained divided: China helped and supported the communist South Mexico and US aid was received in capitalist North Mexico. But Southern part was having more natural resources and with a massive support of China it evolved to a wealthy communist market economy. The northern part was poorer and couldn't get as much support from US government which was having budget cuts and other economical issues. But they did get some nuclear reactors and military support. And they bagan to develop their own nuclear weapons with the US government silently agreeing, though they were officially warning about the nuke program.

Every year the Chinese army participated the joint military exercise with South Mexico and sometimes North Mexico opened fire and showed their military power by sinking some South Mexican military ships with US silently agreeing in the background.

The economical situation in North Mexico being desperate and millions of people having not enough food to eat they still were obliged to keep their dignity by investing all their resources to arms development. And the yearly military exercise of China and South Mexico is to be held once more near the US coast. This time the young leader of North Mexico is warning South Mexicans and China more eagerly than before to gain the support of his own army leaders and leading companies and capitalists and gathering enough power to make the inavoidable reforms the country is facing in the near future, to take some communist elements to their economy to get it work better.

But when he is threatening China with a nuclear strike, China sends some new stealth bombers, capable of carrying nuclear bombs, to Southern Mexico to drop dummy bombs. And after that China brings a powerful navy fleet to US-Mexican coast loaded with nuke-bombers and missiles and threaten strike back with full force if North Mexico or its allies attack South Mexican battle forces or targets.

Well, what do you think, how would the US government act in a situatuation where Chinese nuclear battle force would be carried to the very shore of the U.S.A. ?

Can we afford ignoring China in Korean crisis?

                                       *      *      *     

I hope that North Korea, the U.S..A., South Korea and China will stay calm and avoid any additional provocative acts. This may be a historical moment to restart negotiations and solve the Korean Peninsula problems. It may take decades but it is still possible. But every party in this game need now to respect each others - I mean really respect. If they fail in doing that, the game that follows will be called the World War III. We can't afford it!

                                      *      *      *

When I wrote that Kim Jong Un could be a good leader I really meant it. And here are some things that could make him a best man for Norh Korea:

He could:

1. Start negotiating of a full scale energy shift to renewables to make North Korea to be among the first countries in the world with 100 percent renewable energy economy. I think that Germany, Denmark and  Finland could be participating this process with a great pleasure cooperating with North Korea and training their experts in developing their own industry of PV solar cells production and wind and wave energy research. We could jointly make this country a winning economy to boost also the nearby countries to make their own energy shift to safe and sustainable renewable energy. Also China and Japan could share their technology know how in such a friendly win-win project.

2. Negotiate with the U.S.A and South Korea together with China and Japan to quarantee the safety and independance of North Korea and  give both the Korean peninsula countries a good possibility of ecologically sustainable economical growth and wealthy.

3. Negotiate about turning the huge military machines of both of the countries into more police-force-like safety and security institutions that could have very important role in helping their own people and government and if asked also the neighbour countries in case of nature forces cause large scale catastrophes like earthquakes,storms,  tsunamis and volcanic events. And of course helping to minimize the impact of industrial accidents often combined with natural disasters.

4. Make an initiative of agricultural revolution using means of modern biological farming. No GM food but understanding the ecological processes of sustainable acriculture in Korean Peninsula area. Japan could be one of the best friends in achieving good results in agriculture.

5. Renew the law and punishment system so that no valuable human resources would be wasted in jails or camps but the people who have new ideas and different thinking could be having an important role in developing North Korea to one of the most leading countries in the world.

6. Take good things of every leading country in the world and combine them to Korean way of thinking and Korean culture. There are plenty of things to be adapted from China, Germany, Cuba, Italy, Finland, Sweden, Israel, Japan, Russia, South Korea e.t.c.  and even from the U.S.A. And I'm sure that North Koreans have also lots of good things to give the world.

7. Announce the people of North Korea, the leading communist party and whole the world that North Korea is now beginning a new era - a revolution for peaceful development and cooperation of the countries in the area on win-win basis.

If he would take these kind of steps, he could be remembered as a revolutionist and a great politician and leader. If not ... ? ? ?

There are plenty of  Black Swans swimming around Korean Peninsula now - let's hope we can catch all of them!        Photo: Jukka Seppälä / Creator's Fingerprints

                                            *      *      *

I hope the tension will give up and a peaceful progress will follow in Asia. China must be welcomed to developing work too. We must create a chain of winners instead of confrontation. And renewables could be fueling that process.

Maybe just hopes and dreams....

JPS

Think Big - Sink Big: Fennovoima Sinking Fast - Rats Are Leaving the Ship

More than 2000 experts on clean tech and renewable energy were participating Vaasa Energy Week 2013 last week in Vaasa, Finland  - new wind power is now half the price of new nuclear power   Photo: Jukka Seppälä/Creator's Fingerprints


More and more rats are leaving the Fennovoima -ship. They are thinking with their own brains.

LINK (Finnish) - KALEVA:
http://www.kaleva.fi/blogit/pohjoisen-aani/tuiran-poika/84/fennovoima-heikolla-hapella/3452/

LINK (Finnish) - MTV3:
http://www.mtv3.fi/uutiset/kotimaa.shtml/2013/03/1727605/kuopio-hylkasi-fennovoiman
There is no trouble with Finnish nuclear power companies to Think Big. Fennovoima and Olkiluoto-3-4 projects are a clear sign of ability to Think Big when everyone else in the world is thinking small about nuclear power investments (if you don't count China, Russia, North Korea and other politically and from a military point of view centralized countries, and of course Iran , Saudi-Arabia, Arab-Emirates and all the other countries willing to have their own bomb). But realism has something to do with businesses, I have heard. And during the Vaasa Energy Week,  http://energyvaasa.fi/energy_week/index.php  last week in Vaasa, I heard many specialists on renewable energy telling that the real business is now in renewables. New wind power is half the price of new nuclear power. Solar is getting cheaper. The main problem with renewables seems to be that sometimes the price for generated energy gets too low due to overproduction.

So when a Finnish company is continuing its efforts to build a brand new nuclear power plant in Hanhikivi -area in Pyhäjoki, it is struggling with raising constructing costs - the estimate now shows the plant to be costing 8-9 Billion Euro - a slightly smaller unit than Olkiluoto-3 which may break 10 Billion Euro limit if it gets ready for power generation in 2015-2020. I hope not. This spending money on old-fashioned and unsecure way of generating power should be abandonned straight away. The investments should be made for creating smart grids for wind and solar power generation.

New onshore wind power is even cheaper than new coal power in Australia according to Christian Kjaer (EWEA)   Photo: Jukka Seppälä/Creator's Fingerprints

In Vaasa some experts on renewable energy were just wondering why Finland is spending 2 Billion Euro for constructing old technology power grids, while Germany is investing Billions on constructing smart grids. Yesterday I saw on TV news that Fingrid had invested almost two Billion Euro for "securing the grid" as they said. They had built a new 110 Million Euro gas turbine power plant for fast peak power generating in Forssa, southern Finland.

LINK (Finnish) - MTV3:
http://www.mtv3.fi/uutiset/kotimaa.shtml/2013/03/1727519/forssaan-miljoonien-laitos-jonka-toivotaan-pysyvan-sammuneena

Our Minister of Trade and Economy Mr. Jan Vapaavuori was ponting out that this power plant was needed for securing grid beacuse of increasing wind and solar power generation. But the news reporter knew better the reason: this kind of fast to maximum power PPs are made to secure Olkiluoto-3 and other big nuclear power plants if they go suddenly offline.The need of additional 1600 MW of power generating capacity in 10 minutes or less is compromizing the grid unless you build this kind of fast PPs. In the end of 1970ies we had Inkoo 1000 MW coal power plant to secure our grid if our NPPs should have emergency shutdowns: in half an hour that 1000 MW could be fully achieved if needed. Those power plants were just kept most of the time idling and they were expensive to have. Nowadays these fast supply PPs are mostly gas turbine powered. They are expensive to have but a must if you have large power generating units like Olkiluoto-3. Of course they can be used for backing up wind or solar power, but nordic hydro power does that job more easily and cheaper. And by constructing smart grids with storing capacity quick changes in power output or demand can be managed though it needs much R&D to be fully realized in a large scale.

The message I hope Finnish power industry and leading politicians should now understand is that every Billion Euro investment on old technology is giving our European, Asian and American competitors more advance for their projects. If we are trying to remain in centralized DDR-like power generating  thinking we'll end up with watching them winning the multi-billion global renewable projects that we could have technology and know-how to win. It's a question of HOW and WHERE to Think Big. Now it's time to Think Big - Renewables!

SolarWindProNet Admin was also participating Vaasa Energy Week - and Thinking Big :-)      Photo: Jukka Seppälä/Creator's Fingerprints  

JPS

NRC Finally Admits Solar Storms Can Threaten Nuclear Power Plants Causing Multiple Meltdowns

The Sun was quiet - not at all stormy during the historical Venus Transit last year. But solar storms could trigger geomagnetic storms that may be capable of causing months long blackouts and multireactor meltdowns - a possibility NRC is now gathering more information of  for better estimating the risk and possible means of dealing with it.  Photo: Jukka Seppälä/Creator's Fingerprints

NRC says it cannot rule out the possibility of severe solar storms causing geomagnetic storms that may cause multiple nuclear meltdowns in US nuclear reactors and spent fuel pools. Further investigation is needed to better estimate the real risk, but there may occur some new regulations and means of securing the US NPPs against long blackouts caused by geomagnetic storms.

LINK - ENENEWS:

http://enenews.com/govt-concerned-about-solar-storms-impacting-nuclear-plants-carrington-like-event-core-damage-multiple-sites-discussed

LINK - GPO.GOV:

http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2012-12-18/pdf/2012-30452.pdf

I hope this new information makes it easier for the other nuclear regulators of the world to realize and re-estimate the dangers of long blackouts for the nuclear industry. I'm waiting the reaction of Finnish nuclear regulatory authority - STUK to study the new information available about severe solar storms and months long blackouts.

At least one "Black Swan" is just now being indentified by NRC ( US Nuclear Regulatory Commission) - the voulnerability of NPPs against severe geomagnetic storms.    Photo: Jukka Seppälä/Creator's Fingerprints


As energy blogger I have written about this issue from the very beginning of my blogging.  http://solarwindpronet.blogspot.fi/2011/10/welcome-to-solarwindpronet.html  I see this question to be a real "Black Swan"  http://solarwindpronet.blogspot.fi/2013/01/the-renewable-energy-revolution-is-here.html until sufficient structural changes and backup systems are provided to secure our electrical grids and transformers - and NPPS and spent fuel pools - against long blackouts caused by solar storms or other such events affecting power grids.

Let's hope the discussion begins!

JPS

Former Prime Minister of Japan Naoto Kan Has A Message to The World

Mr. Naoto Kan tells his Experiences as Prime Minister during the FD Nuclear Disaster on a new video.   Photo: Jukka Seppälä/Creator's Fingerprints

The second anniversary of Fukushima nuclear disaster has revealed many good articles and videos about this worst accident of our industrial history. One of them is this excellent video speech which the former Prime Minister of Japan, Member of the House of Representatives, Mr. Naoto Kan has given for Helen Caldicott Foundation "Symposium: The Medical and Ecological Consequences of the Fukushima Nuclear Accident" that is being held in New York the 11th and 12th March 2013. Mr. Kan could not attend the Meeting but gave his speech via video. The video behind the following link is 16 minutes - worth watching!

LINK - INTERTELEMEDIA/VIMEO:   http://vimeo.com/61465640

On the video Naoto Kan explains his experiences as prime minister during the FD -crises and how it affected his way of thinking about nuclear power. He reveals that 50 million people would have been evacuated for decades if the worst case scenario had happened. Well, that's something really to think about.


JPS

The Russian Asteroid Could Have Killed Tens of Thousands of People and Caused A Worldwide Nuclear Fallout

There are plenty of space rocks moving ten times faster than bullets through our solar system. Thousands of potentially hasardous asteroids are estimated to circle around us crossing the earths path in space. It's a question of timing whether they will hit or not. This bright spot in the picture is not an asteroid - it's our fellow planet Venus.   Photo: Jukka Seppälä/Creator's Fingerprints

It was a big surprize. The scientists admitted it was an extraordinary rare event. That two relatively large asteroids came so close to the earth in 24 hours time from different directions. And the other, smaller one actually hit the atmosphere. And it is also rare for an object this big to evaporate and explode high in the air without hitting the earth. And the bigger space rock, 45-60 meters long, just passed by. This time. We were lucky. This time.

LINK - TELEGRAPH: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/space/9874662/Russian-meteor-exploded-with-force-of-30-Hiroshima-bombs.html

LINK -THEDAILYBEAST:
http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2013/02/25/asteroid-apocalypse-why-scientists-worry-about-2036-planet-buster.html

LINK -  SCIENCE20 :
http://www.science20.com/science_20/atlas_collins_helps_put_russian_meteorite_context-103672

Scientists say that if this 15 meter wide smaller asteroid had striken the earth and exploded there, it would have been equivalent to 20-30 hiroshima bombs. It could have killed tens of thousands of people nearby. If hit into a major city it could have killed millions.

The evidence of continous threat of asteroids can be found on the surface of the moon. There is no atmosphere to protect our natural satellite from impacts. And the impact craters are not eroded by winds and water.   Photo: Jukka Seppälä/Creator's Fingerprints



And the radioactive fallout. It would have been far more worse than Hiroshima or Nagasaki. It would have been far worse than Harrisburg. More worse than Chernobyl. Worse than Fukushima.

And why is that? Asteroids are not normally radioactive. But Cheljabinsk and Majak nuclear arms facilities with masses of spent nuclear fuel are. This kind of mega-explosion could have devastated some of these nuclear facilities and caused a masssive, world-wide radioactive fallout.


LINK - BELLONA:
http://www.bellona.org/articles/articles_2013/Meteorite_nuclear_hazards
LINK - PRESSENZA:
http://www.pressenza.com/2013/02/russian-meteorite-another-nuclear-near-miss/

Well, we were lucky as well as the Russians were. We got some more time for preparations. One day a 15-50 meter or bigger asteroid is going to strike our planet. We'd better get rid of nuclear power as quick as possible. The nuclear industry said that a core meltdown accident would be as impossible as an asteroid strike to some nuclear power plant. Now we have had five nuclear reactor meltdowns - and been very near to a catastofical asteroid strike straight to a nuke concentration.

Somebody up there likes us. We have been warned. Those who have ears....

Photo: J.S/C.F.

JPS

Volcanoes and Nuclear Power - The Absent Discussion

Volcanoes could pose a threat to nuclear facilities - perhaps greater than  admitted up to now  Photo: Jukka Seppälä/Creator's Fingerprints

One issue that has bothered me personally for some time now (in addition to nuclear power & solar storms http://solarwindpronet.blogspot.fi/2012/08/power-grids-in-danger.html  ) is volcanic hazards and nuclear power. I think this subjects has just been too difficult to analyze since it brings such horrifying scenarios with it that the main reason for ignorance of discussion would be something like this: "If Yellowstone blows up, we don't need to think about nuclear fallout - we'll end up dead, all of us, and there's no difference which one would be the cause."

But this kind of thinking rejects the logics as too painfull to be continued. The most probable case is that there won't exist any ELE -volcanic eruption on this earth during the next thousand years but thousands of smaller volcanic events that could have a high regional or national impact. And there's where this nuclear thing becomes important.

There was just recently a brief news that Hanford nuclear facility in the U.S.A. is having once more a serious radioactive leak. But when this Hanford case was analyzed, there occurred another hazardous possibility. The Hanford staff would have only less than 24 hours to change 7 000 filters of the facitility in case of volcanic eruption of the nearest volcano. Could that be possible? And what if the eruption and ashfall continues for weeks or months?

LINK - KLCC:
http://klcc.org/Feature.asp?FeatureID=4261

That article reminded me of the volcanic black swan ( http://solarwindpronet.blogspot.fi/2013/01/the-renewable-energy-revolution-is-here.html ) that is hidden from the politicians, the common man and even from the nuclear industry. What if we'll get strong volcanic events near to nuclear power plants? If we'll get 20 - 30 inches of volcanic ash falling down from the skies. How would water intake filters and cooling systems, emergency cooling systems and power grids response to this kind of event?

And how about the structures of nuclear facility buildings? Well, perhaps the reactor buildings would not have any difficulty with coping the extra weight of hundreds of tonnes. The main issue would be the large turbine and generator halls, spent fuel storage buildings, high voltage transformers and such vital equipment that could be destroyed by falling ash.

If you believe this is not possible, you could check out this article about Chernobyl NPP turbine hall which was recently partly collapsed by the weight of the fallen snow. ( LINK -  DAILY NEWS:
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/chernobyl-radiation-unaffected-roof-collapse-article-1.1263037 )

We were lucky the reactor was decommissioned due to that famous accident.

In Japan they have warned that Mt Fuji, the magnificant volcano quite near to Tokyo, may erupt in the near future with a great intensity. They are now making evacuating plans and updating early warning systems.

LINK - ASAHI SHIMBUN:
http://ajw.asahi.com/article/behind_news/social_affairs/AJ201207010023

LINK -  JAPANTODAY :
http://www.japantoday.com/category/national/view/mt-fuji-may-erupt-by-2015-says-ryuku-university-professor

LINK - VOLCANODISCOVERY:
http://www.volcanodiscovery.com/fi/fuji/news/28757/Mt-Fuji-volcano-Japan-new-evacuation-plans-in-case-of-new-eruption-published.html

But no one - at least that I have noticed - have mentioned a single word of the risks that this kind of powerful eruption could  pose to the nearest nuclear facilities. And there are plenty of other active volcanoes in Japan. And over 50 NPPs (It doesn't really matter if the NPP is closed down as long as there is nuclear fuel inside the reactor or in the spent fuel pools - they have to be constantly cooled down).

I know that the designers of nuclear facilities have realized the issue but I think they have underestimated the risk and possible consequences as they did with earthquakes and tsunamis, dam breaks and superstorms and of course solar storms.

I think what we'll need now is a fair and open discussion; how to reduce the risks of nuclear meltdowns and radioactive fallout caused by volcanic events. But the question is: who will take the initiative?

Could it be NRC, or STUK or perhaps JNES? Or GREENPEACE, NIRS or UCC?
We'll see.

JPS